http://waffles.i2p/blog/familiarity.html
When an average user asks me this, they completely forget about everything except the desktop with a taskbar. And with the rise of smartphones, it's no wonder. I see a lot of Switch-to-Linux (no relation) videos saying GNOME is the best option for new users, but I find they're more comfortable using Linux Mint specifically for its desktop environment, Cinnamon.